Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. Most Voters Reject Anti-White Beliefs. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. The final 2022 House ratings fromSplit Ticket, a political content and mapping site produced by #ElectionTwitter veterans @thomas_armin, @HWLavelleMaps,@lxeagle17, and @macrotargeting. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. The district runs from just . [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. November 7:Toss-up races projected. Senate. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. Click here! From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022 Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. Arkansas. Alaska. Benjamin Kalu. The 2023 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 House of Representatives members from Abia State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Tech: Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. Alabama. Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. These results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon. In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Republicans 29 seats not up for election. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r